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June 4, 2007
The estimate of Muslim Americans
Instead of criticizing scholars and studies in the pages of Jerusalem Post for their “brazen manipulation” and “exaggeration” by quoting different estimates of the Muslim population in America, I would like to invite the American Jewish Committee, along with other national religious groups, to support a call to the Bureau of Census to include a question on religious affiliation in the coming census of 2010.
Dr. Zahid Bukhari
The estimate of Muslim Americans has always been a source of anxiety among certain organizations and commentators. Project MAPS did not try to make a population estimate through the national sample survey. It has set its goal to analyze the internal dynamics of the Muslim community. Prof. Ilyas Ba-Yunus and Prof. Kassim Kone wrote a chapter in the MAPS volume on the demographics of American Muslims. After making a critical analysis of various estimates of the Muslim population in the United States, they offered their projected numbers as 5.74 million Muslim Americans. The Pew study (of May 2007), on the other hand, estimated the total Muslim American population as 2.35 million. The Pew study also mentioned, however, that the estimate “is an approximation, subject to the limitations of the methodology used to derive it”, and because it is based upon only landline phone survey, “it is possible that the number of Muslim Americans is higher.”
The Jerusalem Post online published a blog, by the executive director of the American Jewish Committee, New York, with the title “In the Trenches: US Muslim Population Figures: Fact and Fiction.” The author declared all other estimates of the American Muslim population as “exaggerated and politically motivated.”
In the absence of any census data on religious affiliation, the estimate of religious communities’ population is always a problematic venture. One can find various estimates of the evangelical Christian, Catholic and Jewish population that are available in the survey literature. What are the numbers of evangelical Christians in the population? A recent Baylor University study put the percentage at 33.6 percent, roughly 100 million people. At the same time, a study by the Bliss Institute of University of Akron put the percentage at 26.3 percent, roughly 79 million people – a difference of almost 21 million followers. The same is the case with the Catholic population. The range of the estimates is between 22 percent and 26 percent, a difference of about 12 million people. The Latino population has surpassed the African-American population in the United States. How many of them are Catholics or Evangelical is again a matter of speculation and religious aspirations. The controversy about the extent of declining Jewish population in the USA has not been settled yet.
The debate over the number of American Muslims is interesting. On February 21, 1989, the New York Times published a story in which they put the number of American Muslims at 6 million. After almost twelve years, Tom Smith of NORC, in a sponsored study for the American Jewish Committee, estimated that the total Muslim population in the USA was 1.9 million in 2001. Other scholars, however, strongly disagreed with his estimate and put the numbers in the range of 5 – 7 million. Even Hollywood took part in the debate when, in 2005, one of the characters of Syriana movie claimed that there were 10 million Muslims in America.
Take into account the dispute over the Iranian Muslim population. According to the Pew study, Iranian Muslims are 8 percent of the total Muslim American population of 2.35 million. The Iranian population in Census 2000 was 338,266, and, again, according to Pew, only 26 percent of them were Muslims which means that there are 87,949 Iranian Muslims living in the United States. But the problem with this number is that it constitutes less than 4 percent of Pew’s total Muslim Americans estimate of 2.35 million compared to the 8 percent mentioned earlier.
According to the Pew estimate Pakistani Americans are another 8 percent of the total 2.35 million Muslims. Based on a study, conducted by a former official of the Pakistani embassy in Washington DC, there were an estimated half a million Pakistani Americans living in the US. If we consider these half million Pakistani Americans as 8 percent, then the total population of Muslim Americans would be 6.25 million, not 2.35 million.
The case of Indian and Bangladeshi Muslims raises further questions. According to the Pew study, they are 4 percent and 3 percent, respectfully, of the total Muslim American population. The Census 2000 tells us that there were 1.9 million Indians in the United States. However, 4 percent of Pew’s 2.35 million is 94,000. These numbers, I am afraid, will certainly be challenged by the scholars of this field. Bangladeshi Muslims are becoming an energetic and emerging group among Muslim Americans. However, any claim that their numbers are almost at par with the Indian Muslims in the United States needs more research and facts.
Scholars and activists may have different estimates of the American Muslim population. However, there is a consensus among all circles that the Muslim population has been growing in the United States by three means: immigration, conversion and relatively higher birth rate. There was a slight dip in immigration from the Muslim majority countries after 9/11. The recent data from Homeland Security, however, showed that the immigration has been generally on increase from these countries.
Instead of criticizing scholars and studies in the pages of Jerusalem Post for their “brazen manipulation” and “exaggeration” by quoting different estimates of the Muslim population in America, I would like to invite the American Jewish Committee, along with other national religious groups, to support a call to the Bureau of Census to include a question on religious affiliation in the coming census of 2010. The census question will at least present a real picture of the religious landscape of the United States. The religion question is being asked in Canada, England, Australia and other industrial countries who also maintain the separation of church and state.
Meanwhile, the debate about the various estimates of Muslim Americans continues. It makes more sense to use a range of 5-7 million, instead of any definite number, as a reasonable educated estimate of the Muslim American population. Hopefully, the polling firms would also make necessary weighting adjustments to reflect the same range of the Muslim American population in presenting their nationwide survey results.
Dr. Zahid Bukhari is Project Director the American Muslims Studies Program at the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding.
http://blogs.georgetown.edu/?id=25221
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